Combos by Successes
Introduction
This series of 16 tables is arranged to show the odds for rolling 1 - 20 dice with minimums of 1 to 5 successes. The tables are split into two parts for readability and each table reflects only one of the 16 basic die-roll patterns.
The tables are grouped into sets of 3 for each number of successes (Normal, Blessed and Cursed) and the odds are listed for each number of dice rolled. Values in parentheses (xx%) reflect the odds of success if the dice are rolled twice (e.g., using Foresee, Marksman, Bravery, etc.).
A pdf of these tables has also been produced since this is likely the most useful format for use while playing. While all the tables can be printed from the pdf, typically the first two (Base and Shotgun) tables will be the most often used. Note that the pdf only contains 1 - 16 dice probabilities to maximize the readability of the tables.
All values are rounded to the nearest whole percent (i.e., odds listed as 100% are actually between 99.500% and 99.9999999...% ), so yes, you can still fail a roll at 100% -- though it's rather unlikely and highly dependent on how the karma gods are feeling about you at the moment or whether the AO is tinkering with the quantum mechanical laws in your local environment. So don't blame the tables!
Probability Tables
| Tables | Descriptions | Mandy's Ability Tables |
|---|---|---|
| Base Probabilities | Odds for skill checks without skill modifiers or Shotgun | Mandy Base Probabilities |
| Bonus Probabilities | Odds for skill checks using only Bonus skill modifiers (e.g. Hide) | Mandy Bonus Probabilities |
| One's Re-roll Base | Odds for skill checks using One's Re-roll (e.g., Run) skill modifiers | Mandy One's Re-roll Base |
| One's Re-roll Bonus | Odds for skill checks using One's Re-roll and Bonus skill modifiers | Mandy One's Re-roll Bonus |
| Shotgun Probabilities | Odds for combat checks using the Shotgun without skill modifiers | Mandy Shotgun Probabilities |
| Shotgun Grapple | Odds for combat checks using Shotgun and Grapple | Mandy Shotgun Grapple |
| Shotgun Wrestle | Odds for combat checks using Shotgun and Wrestle | Mandy Shotgun Wrestle |
| Shotgun Grapple Wrestle | Odds for combat checks for Shotgun, Grapple and Wrestle | Mandy Shotgun Grapple Wrestle |
Note that Mandy's Ability Tables include the odds for the dice re-roll ability of Mandy Thompson.
How to Use the Probability Tables
- 1. Determine how many dice you have to roll
- - Calculate the total dice based on your skill level and skill check plusses and minuses
- - Add the number of dice for clue tokens you're willing and able to spend
- - Add dice for any spells you have or are willing and able to cast (e.g., Voice of Ra and Wither)
- - Add any other dice as appropriate (e.g., in effect, add one die for the Bullwhip)
- 2. Choose the proper table
- - If you have no special skills and are not using a Shotgun for a combat check, choose the Base table
- - If you are using a Shotgun for a combat check, choose one of the Shotgun tables
- - Use the appropriate table for a Bonus skill (Dodge, Grapple, Hide, Library Use, Psychology, Spot Hidden)
- - Use the appropriate table for a One's Re-roll skill (Camouflage, Linguistics, Listen, Persuade, Run, Wrestle)
- - Use the appropriate table if Mandy Thompson is willing and able to help
- 3. Determine how many successes you need on the table
- - Identify the needed successes for your situation (i.e., combat, evade, horror, spell or skill check)
- - Reduce if you are willing and able to spend clue tokens for successes (Conceal, Fisticuffs, Mystic Gift, Strong Will)
- - Reduce if you are willing and able to spend focus for successes (Ancient Language, Disguise, Endurance, Mental Fortitude)
- 4. Match the necessary successes for your status (Normal, Blessed, Cursed) to the total dice
- - Use the non-parenthetical value to determine the odds assuming you'll engage all the optional modifiers, skills, spells and effects you've planned to employ
- - Use the value in 'parentheses(xx%) if you are willing and able to re-roll all the dice by using a card effect (e.g., Foresee) or skill (Bravery, Expert Occultist, Marksman, Stealth)
- 5. Roll the dice...
If You Fail the First Roll
- The previous odds were just the initial probabilities -- it's a new game once a roll has been made
- The die-roll results may change what you want to do next
- You can either spend the clue tokens for dice and employ the options as planned, or
- Recalculate the odds again and choose your options based on the new results. For example, do you
Grapple
The Shotgun Grapple tables assume that two successes result when either a "5" or a "6" is rolled on a combat check with the Shotgun when Grapple is in play.
One's Re-roll and Mandy Thompson's Ability
Using a full dice re-roll card effect (e.g., Foresee) or skill (Bravery, Expert Occultist, Marksman, Stealth) with One's Re-roll (Camouflage, Linguistics, Listen, Persuade, Run, Wrestle) or Mandy Thompson cannot cause the One's Re-roll or Mandy's ability to be employed a second time. The parenthetical (re-roll) probabilities in the associated tables thus only reflect rolling the dice and then applying One's Re-roll or Mandy's ability one time (or once each if used together) to a full second dice roll. The same one-time use limitations exist for some exhausted card effects like that of the Bullwhip.
For example: combat check
- Roll the dice
- If it looks bad
- re-roll all dice using the Marksman skill
- apply One's Re-roll and/or Mandy's ability and hope for the best
- If it looks good
- apply One's Re-roll and/or Mandy's ability
- if this doesn't work, re-roll all dice using the Marksman skill and hope for the best
- Either option should give the same initial (reroll) odds on the table
- If it looks bad
